TBH I don’t care about a 2018 lead, I want to see the 1975-1979 lead where the Democrats gain supermajority. I want to see 1894 type of numbers where the overreaching party who implemented tariffs see a 100+ seat loss.
I want every single Republican out of a job.
100+ seat loss isn’t possible in the US. City/Suburban ideology is the polar opposite of the rural one. Our system gives disproportionate voices to people who live in rural areas. Young people today have left their rural communities for the cities because it’s not possible to lead a comfortable working life in rural America anymore. The Carter flip was only possible because the democratic base was diffused across many rural counties; that’s not the case anymore.
It literally happened in the exact example I gave. Only 35 seats total are up for reelection in the house but I was being clear about what I wanted.
Is there any reason to trust these polls? I feel like they’ve been wrong since 2016
Maybe?
I don’t have the time or energy to dive into the methodology to figure out if any poll is conducted scientifically. What I do know is that it’s way easier to build a bad poll, and easier still to hit the bricks and generate heaps of bad data.
What I really wish these would ask are things like: “if you had the only vote and could write-in anyone that is eligable, even if they’re not on the ballot, who would you choose?”… or: “Who is your favorite person in politics right now?” Disregarding of all the nonsense answers, you’d probably find out a lot more about hearts and minds versus whatever controlled choices major parties are propping up.
The problem with 2016 was that the polls accurately predicted who would win the popular vote, because that’s what they measure. The 270toWin poll based outcome showed Trump’s chance of victory LINK HERE, and so did 538 which is no longer available as it was purchased by ABC News and taken offline.
Trump’s loss in 2020 and victory again in 2024 were also predicted by both aggregate polls and online betting platforms.
The problem with poll inaccuracy is solved by two methods: increased sample size and giving priority based on perceived bias (gaining back points for having clear and accurate data available to the public).
I think 2016 proved that we should actively ignore them and not get complacent based on poll numbers.
Since only 2016?
We’ll see, it’s still ages until the midterms. Let’s first assume there will be midterms.
Democratic Leadership: Hold my beer
Don’t worry, the Democratic establishment will figure out a way to quickly fuck this up before the midterm elections.
I’m sure they will choose a panel of milquetoast corporate centrist neo-liberal fuck wads for the people to choose from and again blame it on voter apathy. add a little corporate campaign, finance rule, bending to funnel the most amount of money towards their desired candidate and you have the classic recipe for “ Why do Democrats always lose elections?”
It is so much easier and so much more profitable to be the minority party of opposition to evil. You don’t need exciting new ideas, just exciting “back to normal” ideas. …and even “normal” can be made progressively shittier every cycle.
The rich and powerful can handpick their favorite candidates, negotiate a few table scraps in the direction of normal that they’re willing to accept, and call it a win. The campaign industrial complex gets to make a shit load of money.
Most importantly, their ultimate campaign slogan is “Vote for me, or else evil wins.” Easy money all around.
Then when nothing good happens during a Democrats’s turn, they can blame Democrats and then the Republicans they handpick get to ratchet things back in the rich’s direction again.
Or they’ll make some catastrophic legislative or otherwise strategic error on purpose to make sure the Republicans are on even ground. There’s always a Parliamentarian or a “Blue Slip Rule” to help the Democrats steal defeat from the jaws of victory!
Yeah, Democrats do stuff like that on “purpose”, sure that makes sense.
The Blue Slip Rule is not even a law, it’s “unofficial Senate tradition” that cost us a Supreme Court justice. The Democrats repeatedly shelf progressive legislation like student debt relief due to the advice of the Parliamentarian, an unelected appointee who the Republican have regularly fired when their opinion differs from the party’s legislative agenda. I could go on and on, volumes have been written on the phenomenon. How many individual occurrences of this need to happen before it forms the clear composite image of collaboration?
So fucking tired of people blaming the “establishment”.
The “establishment” didn’t give us Trump 2. Short-sighted, immature potential Democratic voters did.
The Republicans can’t be trounced, because they control the active implementation of the oligarchs plans. They either directly implement them if in power, or they signal those directives to the Democrats, who continue to implement the same plans, but in a passive way. They work in concert in this manner, but they must be continually seen to be in a legitimate contest for the ploy to work.
So Shittler will say elections are stolen and illegal when the midterms roll around and maga gets tossed to the curb? And then what?
Really, though, it says a lot about how shitty the democratic party is that the headline says “since 2018” instead of “since the beginning of time”. Trump is a disgusting, rancorous idiot. Everything about him is vile, from his appearance to his voice to his tiny reptilian brain. The fact that the democrats came in second to this human shitstain strongly suggests that the must have, oh i dunno, badly and repeatedly disappointed the american people.
Maybe they could shit-can their entire leadership and get behind someone like Mamdani. Or just disband and make room for a new party.
How many places besides NYC do you think a candidate like Mamdani can win? And I guess I’m asking for even a single point of data that backs this idea up, vs just a hunch that America secretly wants to get far-left.
We can’t wish a revolution into being, what are the first steps to getting there? How do we unite the people, stop fighting the culture wars so we can fight the class war?
Isn’t the first step just having some further left candidates run in the primaries?
the first step is abandoning the parties that abandoned the working class decades ago
I think a large proportion of Americans make hate and cruelty a primary consideration of their voting proclivities. It’s less about how bad the Democrats have fucked up and more about how they haven’t fucked up enough to get voters.
The only Congresional poll that matters is the one next November, and Republicans are doing everything they can to make sure that they can still control Congress, even if the Majority of voters don’t want them to.
Not true at all. Every well-conducted and reliable poll matters, because it determines where campaign money will be spent, where volunteers will be directed, what stops candidates make, and what issues to press on and which to pivot back to stump on.
Pretty dumb myopic take you have there, actually.
No, I think it’s the only correct take. Otherwise people get complacent. I don’t give a shit if the Democrats’ margin is large, it needs to be larger next November to counteract Republican ratfuckery. If Democrats are not ignoring this poll and managing this as if they are really 8 points down, they’ve already lost.
I disagree that it’s the only correct take.
The argument is “Data may cause people to behave in ways I don’t want them to, so I will assail the data to guide people to behaviors I do want.”
Like, I can understand and respect your position, but I don’t think it’s the only correct take.
I think that the structure of your argument is also used broadly by many groups to do terrible things. One can debate the merits of fighting fire with fire, but let’s at least do so with complete awareness.
This is the way. People need to show up in overwhelming numbers to the midterms, this time. It’s the only way to effectively counter Trump’s agenda. Democrats need to have the power to not only reverse course on what he’s doing, but also to remove him from office and prosecute every last mutherfucking one of them.
You might be right, but you could be less annoying about it.
None of that matters when they rig the results.
Pretty dumb and naive take YOU have here, actually
Same as the first Trump admin. Dude can’t govern, and people will respond to that. Except this time he’s ethnically cleansing rather than just doing covid wrong.
Everyone in the US better hope dems can field a candidate through their fucked up primary system that’s gonna be young and re-electable. It’s gonna take at least 8 years to even slightly unfuck this mess.
8 years… ha ha ha!!! I know you said at least but I’m not sure will ever truly know how much they’ve fucked things up. I’m 55 and I doubt it will be fixed before I die.
And if they don’t put some guardrails with some serious teeth and consequences to fix all of things most politicians generally followed in good faith it’s just gonna happen again. I’m seriously starting to believe the American experiment is over. Late stage capitalism, tribalism, and any appearance of empathy have killed it.
I’m 28 and I doubt it’ll be meaningfully fixed before I die. Shit’s been beyond fucked basically my entire adult life, and just regular fucked since well before that.
Yeah I agree, we’ve been truly fucked since Doge. This might be the end of the experiment, but the empire will limp along for a long time, it’s just how comfortable it is to sit in the maw for us plebs.
Well that’s just depressing. I mean true but still depressing.
Seems unlikely but goddamn do I hope fukkin so
Since the last time they forgot they made the same mistake.
Which is exactly why the nazis in charge are already undermining elections and have been for years. Building up deniability in the minds of their racist voters to make it easier to control the results if not throw them out entirely.
In a sane world, Dems should be leading by high double-digits, but alas.
Americans aren’t sane
Because for almost a year now the DNC has been taking all the money Hillary/Biden/Kamala stole from state parties, back to the state parties.
Who have been using the funds to work at campaign staffing levels we usually only see for a few months before election.
That outreach is working, and no one should be surprised.
It’s just the goal of neoliberlism is a neoliberal president and at most either the House or Senate. If/when they get it all, they have to make up excuses for why they’re not doing what they said they’d do.
It’s like when an athlete bets their team will win, but not beat the spread…
Sometimes they end up losing the game by trying to keep it close. But their motivation isn’t winning games, it’s hitting the sweet spot where they get a bunch of unethical money
They will take that lead and intentionally fuck it up again.
