Political observers were shocked over the weekend after a new poll revealed what one reporter called "the largest lead for either party on the congressional ballot in the NBC News poll since the 2018 midterms."Jake Sherman, the founder of Punchbowl News, flagged the NBC poll on Sunday morning."NBC P...
The problem with 2016 was that the polls accurately predicted who would win the popular vote, because that’s what they measure. The 270toWin poll based outcome showed Trump’s chance of victory LINK HERE, and so did 538 which is no longer available as it was purchased by ABC News and taken offline.
Trump’s loss in 2020 and victory again in 2024 were also predicted by both aggregate polls and online betting platforms.
The problem with poll inaccuracy is solved by two methods: increased sample size and giving priority based on perceived bias (gaining back points for having clear and accurate data available to the public).