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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • Those 2 independants caucus with Democrats and would vote for their candidate for Leader, so the current margin once Mitch departs is 52/47 (or, 2 1/2 seats).

    The real problem for Fetterman “flipping” is after the election. While there’s every possibility the Democrats will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, if they claw back a few Senate seats then the balance may end up 50/50 (or even 51D/49R). That’s when Republicans will put on a huge pre$$ure campaign to get someone to defect and promise them all sorts of shit to bail them out of election consequences.





  • In the weeks following a series of Democratic primary victories by progressive and democratic socialist candidates in New York, Colorado, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, and elsewhere, Trump and his allies in the GOP have relentlessly hammered on the idea that the nation was under siege by “godless Communists” who want to “completely destroy the traditional American way of life,” rhetoric that echoed McCarthy era red-baiting to many critics.

    These “Godless Communists” who are looking to “destroy the traditional American way of life” are doing it by winning elections. So, what Trump and Johnson are saying is that we should send the military after these office holders because he doesn’t like their politics.








  • Actually, Kentucky is a special case, as the heavily Republican legislature passed a law (over the Democratic Governor’s veto) specifically removing the right of the Governor to pick a replacement. Now, in the case of any vacancy, the Governor’s only role is to schedule the special election.

    But, if it’s too close to the General Election, then the governor is obligated to fold the special election in with the General. The current theory on the Internet is that Republicans are stringing this out so that happens, because they are afraid if there is a special election then Thomas Massie would win it.

    After some thought, that seems unlikely to me. Even if a special election is held, it would only be for the remainder of McConnell’s term, which is up at the end of the year. So, that would mean that Republicans are more comfortable leaving the seat vacant (and reducing their majority) for a few more months rather than risk Massie getting the job for a few months. (And although Massie is an anti-Trumper, he is still a Republican, and will likely be a reliable vote on all sorts of evil shit for them)


  • The primary elections for the normal election cycle have already happened. Massie did not run for a Senate seat in those because he ran for his House seat, and lost.

    This special election would be a different electio under different rules, and now that he knows he’s not going to his old seat he is available to run.

    So, if they delay, they leave no opportunity for that special election, and Massie has nothing to run for. It definitely seems fitting that Republicans would scheme to leave a seat vacant, rather than there be a chance of it going to a Republican that Trump doesn’t like.