He is now dipping into his base. People are going to poo poo this, but this is unprecedented. The republican running for governor in Florida scrubbed trump’s endoresement from his website. This also means gerrymandering isn’t probably *going to work too great.
- Try to use the drop-off boxes if mail-in
- Vote as early as you can if you mail in.
- Check your registration
- Double-check all dates and times of voting in your area. There was talk of certain sources giving wrong information.
100% on all points - still vote and be vigilant.
There was talk of certain sources giving wrong information.
Yes, fElon backed votesafe.org - I would not trust anything about that site.
He is now dipping into his base.
Is he, though? Ignoring the outlier poll in the OP, RCP’s poll of polls put him at 39% approval, still above his all-time lows. His approval was at 37% in late 2017, around the time it was revealed he helped the Russian military attack US targets.
I’m in TN - There is only 1 trump flag left in a 30 mile radius. Rednecks are even scraping bumper stickers off. The trump store in Nashville closed due to no interest for months. There are still his idiots here but the shift in public support is amazing.
Is he, though?
Kinda depends on how you count it. People are leaving the Republican Party and turning independent. Are they still fascists? Yeah. Are they enthusiastic about Donald Trump personally or the Republican Party generally? Not so much anymore.
So is the base “American Ultra-Nationalists and Bigots”? Or is it “Remaining Members of the Republican Party”?
Ignoring the outlier poll in the OP
I mean, we’ll see if this is an outlier or the first round of new polls showing a continued downward trend. Even just using this single pollster, we’re seeing a negative trend.
Trump still hasn’t found a floor of support.
There is a downward trend for sure, but these numbers suggest this pollster has some kind of systemic error, being consistently so far below the RCP average. Even if you think there’s some kind of issue with RCP (though it has an excellent historical record), Nate Silver’s average is at 38% at the moment.
Estimates are an aggregation of polls. So you’re going to see a few polls where he’s doing below the average and a few above it. But if there’s a downward trend, you’ll see more lows than highs. 29% is certainly surprising, but if he was already at 38% it’s not wildly out of bounds. If someone showed up with a poll showing him at 47%, I’d assume it was an outlier, but I could easily see how you might land on a group of respondents consistent with this response rate.
Yes, he absolutely has. He hasn’t gone below 32%, even during covid. People are feeling his awful decisons now. The russian stuff was esoteric and could be brushed off as fake news. Gas and other prices being so high, plus data centers in red areas has really been hard to brush off. Again, a Florida republican candidate scrubbed his website of trump’s support. That is something.
Even single digits is too fucking high. Having 2-3 out of 10 people supporting him is just crazy.
Not in a historical context.
Approval ratings in the 20’s have happened, but are incredibly rare. Truman, Nixon, and HW are the only ones who have had sustained breaches into the 20’s. And honestly, the science of polling is better now than its ever been. And those breaches also happened late into their terms.
So its pretty exceptional to be in the high 20’s. If its sustained over multiple polls, obviously thats confirmation.
Man. This kills me.
Gallup stopped doing their approval poll in 2025, you know, because (fascist) reasons.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/245606/update-gallup-presidential-approval-ratings.aspx
But it was the longest running, consistent applied, scientific presidential approval poll. And now we’re missing data for arguably the most interesting presidential approval data of all time.
