“The future ain’t what it used to be.”

-Yogi Berra

  • 12 Posts
  • 675 Comments
Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 29th, 2023

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  • Yeah, so a group of 6 Democrats, core components of the Blue MAGA coalition, introduced a competing War Powers resolution, in an effort to muddy the water around the original War Powers resolution introduced by Khanna-Massie.

    The Khanna-Massie War Powers Resolution was introduced two weeks before Trumps assault on Iran. This bill would have stopped Trump in their tracks with regards to Iran. Democratic leadership prevented a vote on this bill in time to stop what Trump has now done. The political interpretation of this was that because the US going to war with Iran was what Israel wanted, Democratic leadership supported what Trump was doing.

    Now, 6 Democrats have introduced a separate war powers resolution, which is practically toothless, and which effectively confuses the two bills. The newer bill is a joke.

    At the end of the day, its clear that the Blue-MAGA coalition and Democratic leadership support Trumps war in Iran. They want to be able to “appear” to be resisting Trump while not having to commit to anything that would actually limit Trumps ability to make war.

    Only the progressive & anti-interventionist Republican caucus actually oppose war in Iran.

    [Edit: to be clear, I know this is a totally different Senate bill]







  • Abughazaleh

    Be careful putting all your hope on this campaign. Kat’s tied for second, not a distant second, but a solid second. She’s well ahead (90%+) with 18-35’s. But I do think she’s a long shot after looking into the polling (the only polling on this race). I’d put the probability of Kat victory at 20%.

    Poll was conducted via

    The poll reached voters through text-to-web messages and automated landline calls using “interactive voice response,” or IVR.

    It was about 22% land line, 77% text to web. Now I’m always a bit dubious of “polls of likely voters”, because they almost exclusively rely on whatever cohort voted last election. But we work with the data we’ve got, not the data we want.

    Something striking is that Biss is not as far ahead as we might expect them to be. I think its going to be tight on election day, tighter than what this poll suggests.

    If you look at the cross tabs, Basically, Biss voters split between Kat and Fine as second choice, and all Fine voters break to Biss, and all Kat voters also break to Biss.

    Basically, the least popular candidate to Fine voters is Kat, and the least popular candidate to Kat voters is fine. The electorate is very split in this race, and Biss is the benefactor of this. Likewise, there is substantial splitting on the DSA vote. Bushra got the DSA endorsement, not Kat, and that might have been the killer. There is clearly some local infighting happening here, where DSA leadership didn’t like Kat or some such (maybe they view her as a primadonna). Regardless, almost all Bushra voters break to Kat, and they are one of the only candidates where most of their voters break in such a specific way.

    If this were typical times and typical campaigns, i’d say Kats done and Biss is going to win this. However, key issue I identified early: this is a poll of “likely voters”. Polling based on this kind of sampling suffers from a “the past is the future” assumption. One thing has been clear about Kat’s campaign is that its not traditional. If Kat has been focusing on building votership into the primary, as in, recruiting unlikely voters to engage, then these results are actually very positive for her, because polling will always underestimate that strategy.

    https://evanstonroundtable.com/2026/02/24/roundtable-poll-biss-leads-by-single-digits-over-abughazaleh-fine-in-congressional-primary/