There is a downward trend for sure, but these numbers suggest this pollster has some kind of systemic error, being consistently so far below the RCP average. Even if you think there’s some kind of issue with RCP (though it has an excellent historical record), Nate Silver’s average is at 38% at the moment.
Estimates are an aggregation of polls. So you’re going to see a few polls where he’s doing below the average and a few above it. But if there’s a downward trend, you’ll see more lows than highs. 29% is certainly surprising, but if he was already at 38% it’s not wildly out of bounds. If someone showed up with a poll showing him at 47%, I’d assume it was an outlier, but I could easily see how you might land on a group of respondents consistent with this response rate.
There is a downward trend for sure, but these numbers suggest this pollster has some kind of systemic error, being consistently so far below the RCP average. Even if you think there’s some kind of issue with RCP (though it has an excellent historical record), Nate Silver’s average is at 38% at the moment.
Estimates are an aggregation of polls. So you’re going to see a few polls where he’s doing below the average and a few above it. But if there’s a downward trend, you’ll see more lows than highs. 29% is certainly surprising, but if he was already at 38% it’s not wildly out of bounds. If someone showed up with a poll showing him at 47%, I’d assume it was an outlier, but I could easily see how you might land on a group of respondents consistent with this response rate.