Is he, though? Ignoring the outlier poll in the OP, RCP’s poll of polls put him at 39% approval, still above his all-time lows. His approval was at 37% in late 2017, around the time it was revealed he helped the Russian military attack US targets.
I’m in TN - There is only 1 trump flag left in a 30 mile radius. Rednecks are even scraping bumper stickers off. The trump store in Nashville closed due to no interest for months. There are still his idiots here but the shift in public support is amazing.
Kinda depends on how you count it. People are leaving the Republican Party and turning independent. Are they still fascists? Yeah. Are they enthusiastic about Donald Trump personally or the Republican Party generally? Not so much anymore.
So is the base “American Ultra-Nationalists and Bigots”? Or is it “Remaining Members of the Republican Party”?
Ignoring the outlier poll in the OP
I mean, we’ll see if this is an outlier or the first round of new polls showing a continued downward trend. Even just using this single pollster, we’re seeing a negative trend.
There is a downward trend for sure, but these numbers suggest this pollster has some kind of systemic error, being consistently so far below the RCP average. Even if you think there’s some kind of issue with RCP (though it has an excellent historical record), Nate Silver’s average is at 38% at the moment.
Estimates are an aggregation of polls. So you’re going to see a few polls where he’s doing below the average and a few above it. But if there’s a downward trend, you’ll see more lows than highs. 29% is certainly surprising, but if he was already at 38% it’s not wildly out of bounds. If someone showed up with a poll showing him at 47%, I’d assume it was an outlier, but I could easily see how you might land on a group of respondents consistent with this response rate.
Yes, he absolutely has. He hasn’t gone below 32%, even during covid. People are feeling his awful decisons now. The russian stuff was esoteric and could be brushed off as fake news. Gas and other prices being so high, plus data centers in red areas has really been hard to brush off. Again, a Florida republican candidate scrubbed his website of trump’s support. That is something.
Is he, though? Ignoring the outlier poll in the OP, RCP’s poll of polls put him at 39% approval, still above his all-time lows. His approval was at 37% in late 2017, around the time it was revealed he helped the Russian military attack US targets.
I’m in TN - There is only 1 trump flag left in a 30 mile radius. Rednecks are even scraping bumper stickers off. The trump store in Nashville closed due to no interest for months. There are still his idiots here but the shift in public support is amazing.
Kinda depends on how you count it. People are leaving the Republican Party and turning independent. Are they still fascists? Yeah. Are they enthusiastic about Donald Trump personally or the Republican Party generally? Not so much anymore.
So is the base “American Ultra-Nationalists and Bigots”? Or is it “Remaining Members of the Republican Party”?
I mean, we’ll see if this is an outlier or the first round of new polls showing a continued downward trend. Even just using this single pollster, we’re seeing a negative trend.
Trump still hasn’t found a floor of support.
There is a downward trend for sure, but these numbers suggest this pollster has some kind of systemic error, being consistently so far below the RCP average. Even if you think there’s some kind of issue with RCP (though it has an excellent historical record), Nate Silver’s average is at 38% at the moment.
Estimates are an aggregation of polls. So you’re going to see a few polls where he’s doing below the average and a few above it. But if there’s a downward trend, you’ll see more lows than highs. 29% is certainly surprising, but if he was already at 38% it’s not wildly out of bounds. If someone showed up with a poll showing him at 47%, I’d assume it was an outlier, but I could easily see how you might land on a group of respondents consistent with this response rate.
Yes, he absolutely has. He hasn’t gone below 32%, even during covid. People are feeling his awful decisons now. The russian stuff was esoteric and could be brushed off as fake news. Gas and other prices being so high, plus data centers in red areas has really been hard to brush off. Again, a Florida republican candidate scrubbed his website of trump’s support. That is something.