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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • I’ll go a bit further and say this particular hill is not the best one to choose, as presidents have long unilaterally launched military operations and it’s been broadly declared legal, even if it makes no sense. Changing the law would be good, but as the law stands, it’s a hard argument to make that Trump should be impeached because of his unilateral decision to strike Iran but every other president in recent history shouldn’t have been impeached over their unilateral strikes.

    Need to select some way in which he has behaved illegally, in a way that looks corrupt, and in a way that is different than other presidents that have been given free passes. He seems to give such circumstances pretty routinely, so I don’t know why you’d go for this one.








  • I think it’s not so much about going after the China market, but about cheaper approach to going after the worldwide market (except US). Going through US means taking huge hit on import tariffs on material and the pissing contest causes a lot of retaliatory tariffs further making things rough on the way into other countries. Since it keeps on changing, impossible to realistically plan around.

    So the US market suffers as jobs exit and prices go up, but the prices were going to go up either way. The world except US is more preserved.

    Also, to the extent that they could compete with China, this certainly wouldn’t hurt.



  • Walmart is garbage, but the claim they can eat 30% tariffs because they made billions is by itself not a credible argument.

    They made 16 billion in profit, on the back of 650 billion in revenue. Percentage wise that’s 2.5%. The acquisition cost of the goods is a fraction of their operating costs, but if cost of acquiring the goods was even only 10% of their revenue, the tariffs are enough to push them red.

    If he is right then I would expect a nice analysis of the financials of Walmart showing this is feasible, rather than a hollow rant.

    Alternatively, if it were as he stated earlier temporary pain like medicine to fix the manufacturing imbalance, I would want a more coherent strategy. As it stands, businesses can’t plan around his tariff policy as it shifts day to day without warning. If they did bring home manufacturing at significant expense, they lose because Trump gives in and competition that didn’t bother has an advantage.



  • That seems convoluted but also as stated it wouldn’t be a wash.

    A deduction means pretend that portion of income never existed and the taxable portion of it is not charged.

    Then generally the deduction has to be above the standard deduction to make sense to use, and the standard deduction is just so high nowadays.

    So if you claimed a hypothetical deduction of 1,000, then you reduce your tax burden by only 200 or so, assuming you otherwise had like 20 some odd thousand in deductions to get you close to the standard deduction.

    The only way it would be a wash is if it were a refundable tax credit with no qualifications, and that almost never happens for anything. I could imagine a non refundable credit that would make it a wash for anyone with sufficient tax liability.

    However, this would make the tariffs an utterly pointless needless complication, needing a whole lot more accounting by sellers and consumers just to get to a similar and simpler position of not doing the tariffs in the first place.


  • I think I heard a plan to argue the amendment intended “exclusively subject to the jurisdiction”, though that requires a pretty huge “reading between the lines” to just invent that extra term. In such a scenario they would argue citizenship of a foreign nation by way of a parent being able to pass on that citizenship disqualifies then for US citizenship. This means that they couldn’t be left nationless even if that sketchy interpreation prevails.

    But the reading of the text pretty much seems clear cut, the only way someone born in US soil could be disqualified is if the US was invaded and it was occupied to the point where US government had no practical authority, like if Japan had kicked out all the US government, judges, and law enforcement to make it clearly obvious there no jurisdiction left…


  • “I don’t think anything went wrong. We just needed more votes,”

    Nothing went wrong except the most plainly important thing to go wrong. Further something that could have actually gone right if they just planned better around one of their members.

    “It was a win-win either way.

    Losing is ok because the Republicans will get blamed… Except this very article where they actually had enough Republicans to get a win and they still boffed it. A rare opportunity for substantiative progress to prove that even as a minority party they can drive common sense legislation and they totally screwed up.



  • Approval ratings get weird, someone with a lower approval rating can beat someone with a higher approval rating.

    So relatively fewer people are “excited” about a democrat candidate. If they have to pick between that candidate and Trump, they may still pick the candidate as the best practical option available, but they don’t necessarily “approve” of the choice they are making. People have a hard time mustering “approval” for a milquetoast candidate, even if that person is the least objectionable to a broad set of folks.

    Meanwhile Trump is making a particular sort of folk very happy, in a way no other modern politician has dared to do. Most people may find it highly objectionable driving a lot of disapproval, but you will have the die hard MAGAs ecstatic about stuffing those brown people into vans and locking them up in El Salvador without any due process.