Hopefully not like 2008 all over again because this time I’m hoping (maybe coping) that there’ll actually be some consequences for those responsible. We can’t just let our economy get held hostage every few years by a few greedy assholes. Hopefully with lessons learned, and a bluer government, we can break this cycle. The economy crashing in 2028 would be pretty good timing for that setup.
If this is a bubble, it’s not a very impressive one. The dot-com bubble was built on companies with little or no revenue, and the Nasdaq eventually fell about 78%. Today the S&P 500 trades on a forward P/E of 18.7, below its 5 and 10 year averages, with Q3 earnings growth at 29.5%. Nvidia, for example, arguably the epicenter of the bubble, just made $63.7bn of operating income on $96.2bn of revenue at a 75% gross margin. So this bubble is built on organic growth and insane real demand. Google Cloud grew 103%. Azure 48%. AWS 39%.
Also, neither OpenAI nor Anthropic are publicly traded. They can implode and it’ll leave barely a ripple in the stock market.
If the bubble pops, the US economy goes with it. It’ll be 2008 all-over again.
Hopefully not like 2008 all over again because this time I’m hoping (maybe coping) that there’ll actually be some consequences for those responsible. We can’t just let our economy get held hostage every few years by a few greedy assholes. Hopefully with lessons learned, and a bluer government, we can break this cycle. The economy crashing in 2028 would be pretty good timing for that setup.
If this is a bubble, it’s not a very impressive one. The dot-com bubble was built on companies with little or no revenue, and the Nasdaq eventually fell about 78%. Today the S&P 500 trades on a forward P/E of 18.7, below its 5 and 10 year averages, with Q3 earnings growth at 29.5%. Nvidia, for example, arguably the epicenter of the bubble, just made $63.7bn of operating income on $96.2bn of revenue at a 75% gross margin. So this bubble is built on organic growth and insane real demand. Google Cloud grew 103%. Azure 48%. AWS 39%.
Also, neither OpenAI nor Anthropic are publicly traded. They can implode and it’ll leave barely a ripple in the stock market.
Holy shit, two cakes