If this is a bubble, it’s not a very impressive one. The dot-com bubble was built on companies with little or no revenue, and the Nasdaq eventually fell about 78%. Today the S&P 500 trades on a forward P/E of 18.7, below its 5 and 10 year averages, with Q3 earnings growth at 29.5%. Nvidia, for example, arguably the epicenter of the bubble, just made $63.7bn of operating income on $96.2bn of revenue at a 75% gross margin. So this bubble is built on organic growth and insane real demand. Google Cloud grew 103%. Azure 48%. AWS 39%.
Also, neither OpenAI nor Anthropic are publicly traded. They can implode and it’ll leave barely a ripple in the stock market.
If this is a bubble, it’s not a very impressive one. The dot-com bubble was built on companies with little or no revenue, and the Nasdaq eventually fell about 78%. Today the S&P 500 trades on a forward P/E of 18.7, below its 5 and 10 year averages, with Q3 earnings growth at 29.5%. Nvidia, for example, arguably the epicenter of the bubble, just made $63.7bn of operating income on $96.2bn of revenue at a 75% gross margin. So this bubble is built on organic growth and insane real demand. Google Cloud grew 103%. Azure 48%. AWS 39%.
Also, neither OpenAI nor Anthropic are publicly traded. They can implode and it’ll leave barely a ripple in the stock market.