Because Kentucky law says Beshear would have to call an election so a Republican would get in anyway. But that law might be unconstitutional from what I’ve read. But also is it a fight worth spending political capital and legal fees on when realistically it won’t change anything and there’ll be a new Republican Kentucky senator in 6 months?
So I’ve heard this said before, but I don’t really get it.
Massie is a current Kentucky House representative, he lost his primary so his term will end in January.
McConnell’s seat is up for election in November, so his term also ends in January.
If a special election is held, it’s just to fill out his term until the end of January.
So in a scenario where a special election is held and Massie wins, he has to resign his House seat to take the Senate seat, but the term still ends in January.
The race for McConnell’s seat is already underway and the Republican nominee already picked. Additionally all other deadlines to run as an Independent have passed.
Ok rereading this I think you missed the whole shenanigan the last few weeks. If McConnell is declared dead before Aug 3, then there is a special election/appointment (because that’s debated). If McConnell is declared dead on or after Aug 3, then there is a rule that kicks in that because it’s only 3 months until the midterms, then there is no special election/appointment and McConnell’s seat election gets rolled up together with the midterms.
The GOP is concerned that if McConnell is declared dead before Aug 3, then there will be an appointment/special election to replace McConnell before the midterms. That will make Massie/whoever wins/is appointed the “incumbent”. Yes that will be short lived because the midterm election will happen anyway. But they still don’t want it. Their thought process is that if Massie wins/is appointed, then it will give him an “incumbent” advantage in the midterms (in scare quotes if you want). So they are keeping McConnell on life support until Aug 3 so that it gets punted to the mdterms.
Their thought process is that if Massie wins/is appointed, then it will give him an “incumbent” advantage in the midterms
But I don’t believe Massie can run in the midterms.
I admit I am wrong that he can’t be the incumbent, because technically being the incumbent just implies holding the office, not running for the office they currently hold, but in a world where a special election happens (or an appointment), and Massie takes McConnell’s Senate seat, he can not run in the midterm election.
Per Ballotpedia the deadline to file as a unaffiliated (independent) was in June.
Any special election would only cover the remainder of McConnell’s term and not the term after, which is a whole separate election that is happening in November.
My guess, after reading more about it, would be that a special election could include the two current midterm candidates AND Massie (as an independent), and that election could result in a Democrat winning. Then because the Democrats “just won” it would lower Republican voter turnout in the midterms. (Although I suspect in this scenario the midterm and special election would both take place in November, so it wouldn’t be two separate elections, but Massie would get more air time to ensure the Republican doesn’t win.)
Plus new Senators need to be sworn in which I’m sure if a dem won the special election the republican controlled senate would just simply not swear them in.
Cool, let’s fuckin make them do that bullshit then.
I’m tired of going “well if we fight back, they’ll just fight back”. Like yeah, they are actively fighting us. We are in a fight. We’re being punched in the face. If we punch them, they will punch us. If we don’t punch them, they will still punch us.
yes, because otherwise Beshear looks like a total do-nothing tool, and the dems REALLY need to prove to their voters that they actually do something, or people wont get off their couches again.
Wasting time and money of a guaranteed loss is WORSE than being a “do-nothing tool”. Why do people automatically assuming “doing” is automatically good? You can DO bad things.
If Democrats want to help elect Republicans because they’re too stupid to see that, we’re fucked anyway.
And the election requires 63 days’ notice to the sheriffs in each county. And two elections a few weeks apart is going to annoy and confuse voters.
And (extrapolating the process for vacancies in primary elections) Beshear isn’t the one who formally recognizes McConnell’s absence for the purposes of the election; his Republican SoS is.
And if Beshear calls up an election without having properly verified only for McConnell to show real proof of life, the Democratic governor of a deeply red state with two more years left is going to have a scandal on his hands.
They’re basically asking Beshear to snatch a Democratic scandal from the jaws of a Republican one.
Why not replace McConnell anyways and let them prove otherwise?
Because Kentucky law says Beshear would have to call an election so a Republican would get in anyway. But that law might be unconstitutional from what I’ve read. But also is it a fight worth spending political capital and legal fees on when realistically it won’t change anything and there’ll be a new Republican Kentucky senator in 6 months?
I thought special elections were trending less MAGA these days.
Its still Kentucky.
Which has a Democrat for a governor. Senators are up for statewide elections just like governors.
The reason they want to stop a Special Election, is in one of those Maise can run despite losing the Republican primary
He might not win, but he’d suck up enough votes from the other Republican to give it to a Dem
So I’ve heard this said before, but I don’t really get it.
Massie is a current Kentucky House representative, he lost his primary so his term will end in January.
McConnell’s seat is up for election in November, so his term also ends in January.
If a special election is held, it’s just to fill out his term until the end of January.
So in a scenario where a special election is held and Massie wins, he has to resign his House seat to take the Senate seat, but the term still ends in January.
Does that really change anything?
Thought is it may give him incumbent advantage.
He can’t be the incumbent.
The race for McConnell’s seat is already underway and the Republican nominee already picked. Additionally all other deadlines to run as an Independent have passed.
Ok rereading this I think you missed the whole shenanigan the last few weeks. If McConnell is declared dead before Aug 3, then there is a special election/appointment (because that’s debated). If McConnell is declared dead on or after Aug 3, then there is a rule that kicks in that because it’s only 3 months until the midterms, then there is no special election/appointment and McConnell’s seat election gets rolled up together with the midterms.
The GOP is concerned that if McConnell is declared dead before Aug 3, then there will be an appointment/special election to replace McConnell before the midterms. That will make Massie/whoever wins/is appointed the “incumbent”. Yes that will be short lived because the midterm election will happen anyway. But they still don’t want it. Their thought process is that if Massie wins/is appointed, then it will give him an “incumbent” advantage in the midterms (in scare quotes if you want). So they are keeping McConnell on life support until Aug 3 so that it gets punted to the mdterms.
So I don’t think I’ve missed it.
As you said,
But I don’t believe Massie can run in the midterms.
I admit I am wrong that he can’t be the incumbent, because technically being the incumbent just implies holding the office, not running for the office they currently hold, but in a world where a special election happens (or an appointment), and Massie takes McConnell’s Senate seat, he can not run in the midterm election.
Per Ballotpedia the deadline to file as a unaffiliated (independent) was in June.
Any special election would only cover the remainder of McConnell’s term and not the term after, which is a whole separate election that is happening in November.
My guess, after reading more about it, would be that a special election could include the two current midterm candidates AND Massie (as an independent), and that election could result in a Democrat winning. Then because the Democrats “just won” it would lower Republican voter turnout in the midterms. (Although I suspect in this scenario the midterm and special election would both take place in November, so it wouldn’t be two separate elections, but Massie would get more air time to ensure the Republican doesn’t win.)
Republican is a Republican is a Republican. The corpse is probably still a better option.
The corpse is basically in a permanent “present” vote, or even less then that? Because it can delay quorum?
McConnell’s absence is not affecting quorum, but it is one less R vote for as long as he’s out.
Plus new Senators need to be sworn in which I’m sure if a dem won the special election the republican controlled senate would just simply not swear them in.
Cool, let’s fuckin make them do that bullshit then.
I’m tired of going “well if we fight back, they’ll just fight back”. Like yeah, they are actively fighting us. We are in a fight. We’re being punched in the face. If we punch them, they will punch us. If we don’t punch them, they will still punch us.
I’m tired of being punched. I want to punch.
yes, because otherwise Beshear looks like a total do-nothing tool, and the dems REALLY need to prove to their voters that they actually do something, or people wont get off their couches again.
Wasting time and money of a guaranteed loss is WORSE than being a “do-nothing tool”. Why do people automatically assuming “doing” is automatically good? You can DO bad things.
If Democrats want to help elect Republicans because they’re too stupid to see that, we’re fucked anyway.
That law is unconstitutional. The Kentucky constitution says the governor can just appoint a replacement.
As I pointed out in another comment: the Kentucky Constitution does not say this.
Any vacancy not covered (which in the Kentucky Constitution’s case are city, town, county, district, State) is filled as “prescribed by law”.
And the election requires 63 days’ notice to the sheriffs in each county. And two elections a few weeks apart is going to annoy and confuse voters.
And (extrapolating the process for vacancies in primary elections) Beshear isn’t the one who formally recognizes McConnell’s absence for the purposes of the election; his Republican SoS is.
And if Beshear calls up an election without having properly verified only for McConnell to show real proof of life, the Democratic governor of a deeply red state with two more years left is going to have a scandal on his hands.
They’re basically asking Beshear to snatch a Democratic scandal from the jaws of a Republican one.
No better to just let someone incapable to do their job have it.
because hes bluemaga like all the parties that arent maga in america, its just a performative dance