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Cake day: July 7th, 2023

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  • Even putting aside the more outlandish (not “implausible”, just outlandish) theories about what Trump might be up to here, this is an objectively insane thing for an American president to say. He just announced to the world that ~$700bn of the US cash reserves are stored in a location that is not secure enough to prevent theft. At a time when the US debt to GDP is already skyrocketing and foreign lenders are getting increasingly concerned about America’s ability to make good on their debts. Is he trying to engineer a bond market crisis? Because this is the sort of thing you’d do if you were.



  • Funnily enough, there are reports that after that F-15 went down, Trump had to be removed from the situation room because he got so panicky. And he was very specifically freaking out about the idea that this was going to be his version of the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis. So in this particular case he at least has some vague recollection of history (easier when you actually lived through it). It just wasn’t enough to stop him bumbling face first into a total shitshow, because Trump is, above all else, unbelievably arrogant. He thought he could solve the Iran problem where every other president had failed, at least in his mind. Never mind that Obama made huge progress on Iran and then Trump was the one that tore up his deal.





  • I mean, that’s a reasonable assumption in most cases, but with the way this legislation is written I don’t see how that’s possible. It changes the entire process for registering to vote, and you have to be registered in order to vote. This isn’t like bathroom bills where they’ll target people who “look trans”, this is an actual bureaucratic process that they’re rewriting. Stuff goes on file. There are records. There are whole departments of people involved in processing this stuff, not just one single guard at the gate who can wave you through.



  • That would be the smart play, yes (although I don’t believe, constitutionally, that they can actually prevent a new congress being seated… But that doesn’t change the fact that it’s politically valuable to have legislation fail so that you can invent a problem that you “tried” to fix). However Trump doesn’t seem to have gotten the memo. The thing about that gambit is that you have to look like you tried, but don’t actually, y’know, burn every bit of political capital you have trying to make it happen. Trump, on the other hand, is now saying he’s going to completely roadblack all legislation until this passes. He’s making it a do or die bill, a "If this is the only thing I pass in my entire term I’m fine with that’ piece of tentpole legislation, which is definitely not what you do when the point is to fail nobly.


  • That is the most bizarre thing about this legislation; dem voters are shown to be more likely to own passports, and are more likely to keep their original name when getting married. This will obviously fuck over poor voters the hardest, so maybe that’s the point, but it still seems ultimately self-defeating.

    I think Trump is just throwing himself behind anything that vaguely sounds good for him because he’s panicking.

    And for the “Trump is going to rig the midterms, we’re all screwed” crowd, yes, he’ll try, but if he was confident he was going to succeed he wouldn’t be acting so desperate right now, would he?