Those 2 independants caucus with Democrats and would vote for their candidate for Leader, so the current margin once Mitch departs is 52/47 (or, 2 1/2 seats).
The real problem for Fetterman “flipping” is after the election. While there’s every possibility the Democrats will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, if they claw back a few Senate seats then the balance may end up 50/50 (or even 51D/49R). That’s when Republicans will put on a huge pre$$ure campaign to get someone to defect and promise them all sorts of shit to bail them out of election consequences.
“Any party switch risks shifting the balance of power in a closely divided Senate.”
No, no it does not.
53 Republicans
45 Democrats
2 Independents that caucus with Democrats.
Assuming Mitch is really dead and they are holding that announcement until 8/3 to avoid a special election, that would vacate the seat:
52
45
2
Fetterman flips:
53
44
2
No actual difference.
The threat is an excuse for other neoliberal senators to say:
The only correct answer to threats like these is:
If he’s gonna leave, make him do it.
As a Republican no one will care about him, all his lobbying money goes away and he’s just another Republican crazy lost in the crowd.
All his money and attention comes from the D by his name. And he can’t beat a maga Republican in a Republican primary.
You also have to love how PA Democrats are like “Don’t threaten us with a good time!”
“Polling indicates 57% of Pennsylvania Democrats want Fetterman to exit the party.”
Those 2 independants caucus with Democrats and would vote for their candidate for Leader, so the current margin once Mitch departs is 52/47 (or, 2 1/2 seats).
The real problem for Fetterman “flipping” is after the election. While there’s every possibility the Democrats will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, if they claw back a few Senate seats then the balance may end up 50/50 (or even 51D/49R). That’s when Republicans will put on a huge pre$$ure campaign to get someone to defect and promise them all sorts of shit to bail them out of election consequences.