Prediction markets, including PredictIt, Kalshi, and PolyMarket, pay dividends based on the outcome of real-world events. Anyone can buy a share in the markets and will either gain or lose money based on the outcome they pick. Companies who run these markets say their model deals in event contracts, similar to the stock market. Washington’s attorney general says otherwise.
"Under longstanding, well-established, and unambiguous Washington state law, Kalshi’s gambling operation is illegal,” the Attorney General’s office wrote in a complaint filed in King County Superior Court.
Kalshi did not respond to KUOW’s request for comment on the lawsuit.
Washington’s complaint asks federal judges to stop Kalshi from operating in the state. It also demands that Kalshi repay money lost by Washingtonians on the platform.
The way they’re trying to get around this is:
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Bribe the current administration (Already done) and;
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Structure all of the bets so they are ‘Yes/No’ options and then pretend they are selling swaps and thus regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
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Have the Federal Government intervene in these cases claiming that the Supremacy Clause means that only they, via the CFTC, can regulate swaps and these places are not gambling they are selling financial instruments. So any state regulation is invalid because the CFTC is already regulating these swaps which are totally not gambling.
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Let administration official use insider knowledge to take advantage of all of the suckers so that #3. keeps going.
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