There are an estimated 12,000 ballots left to count as of late Thursday evening. Most of those ballots are from Arapahoe County. Only 85 percent of the county’s votes are reported. Arapahoe County supported Laubacher overwhelmingly (60.9 percent) to Boebert’s 35.8 percent.
According to NBC News, Boebert must win 61.4 percent of the remaining vote to overtake Laubacher.
The gold standard for calling races is the AP. They don’t call any competitive race until someone is up by more votes than there are ballots remaining (they say they watch for trailing candidates not having a path to victory), unless polls make it clear that the race isn’t competitive. They’ve got a 100% accuracy rate since 2008, except when counties report incorrect totals.
Totally agree with you a call by AP would be much more certain than this no-name publication. A call by nearly anything else would be more credible.
I was just irked at the suggestion this shouldn’t have been posted, it had relevant useful information and I’m glad I was exposed to it. Sure this is likely an attempt at a clickbait headline by some small website, but it’s very simple to just store this away as that and still get some value.
I also have an irritation with the association between decision desks calling an election and them actually being certified. People mix this up most of the time.in.my experience and don’t realize that a news agency calling something has literally 0 legal connection to the race being won.
And for your final point about the 100% accuracy except when incorrect totals are counted kind of enhances point. Counties often do not report things correctly as fast as we want them to, but they have no obligation to.