The defense industry and other manufacturers are now just over five months away from a January 1, 2027, deadline under federal regulations to ‌stop purchasing rare earths, magnets, tungsten, molybdenum and tantalum from China, Russia, Iran or North Korea.

Washington has been trying to limit such imports for years but has routinely granted companies waivers because the U.S. supply can’t meet the demand.

Trump railed against such waivers in a May 10 post on his Truth Social platform, saying: “ALL FEDERAL AGENCIES MUST BUY AMERICAN — NO EXCUSES!” Last Monday, he signed an executive order making it even harder for defense contractors to obtain waivers.

But the reality is that U.S. minerals companies are nowhere close to meeting domestic needs, according to interviews with 16 industry executives, investors, analysts and policymakers.