“This morning we got the updated numbers for fiscal year 2026 for capital gains … it came in at $1.5 billion,” economist Dave Reich told state lawmakers earlier this month. “So a very significant increase, quite a bit above our forecast from what we had before.”

This is understating things by a fair bit. Last year this tax raised $584 million. So the revenue, which is a preliminary figure pending delayed returns, appears to have nearly tripled in one year. It quadrupled from the year before that.

This is not what the critics of tax-the-rich schemes said should happen. They predicted tax proceeds would deteriorate as rich people moved away or structured their finances to avoid paying it.