In the two weeks since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, Donald Trump increasingly has been knocked on his political heels.
He’s grown more agitated with news coverage and has failed to find a way to explain why he started the war — or how he will end it — that resonates with a public concerned by American deaths in the conflict, surging oil prices and dropping financial markets. Even some of his supporters are questioning his plan and his overall poll numbers are declining.
Meanwhile, Moscow is getting a boost from the war’s early days after Trump eased sanctions on some Russian oil shipments. That, combined with rising oil prices, undercut the yearslong push to crimp Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war in Ukraine.
Then there are Democrats, who were left reeling after Trump won the 2024 election. With control of Congress at stake in November’s midterms, the party has come together to oppose Trump’s Iran policy and point to the economic turmoil as proof that Republicans haven’t kept their promises to bring down everyday costs.
He realizes exactly what’s going on, he’s counting on it. It wouldn’t surprise me if he is working through back channels to ensure that Iran launches a major terrorist attack in October. He needs that to try to cancel elections.
Zelenskyy has been President all this time, after all, because they suspended elections while his country is being actively invaded. Trump heard this and thinks it can work here, too. It shouldn’t work here, but who knows? Congress has abdicated it’s ability to declare war to the President, they might just concede their ability to schedule elections too.
Suspension of elections during martial law is written into Ukraine’s constitution. There is no legal framework in the US for the federal government to postpone or cancel state elections.
(I agree with you on your point that he’s certainly going to try, I just wanted to expand on that a bit.)
Well, there is some wiggle room, as the date of Federal elections is determined by Congress. The current election date is set by statute. So, it can be rescheduled with a statute as well.
However, the term of Congress is set by the Constitution. And House seats, in particular, must be assigned based on election results. If the election is postponed into the New Year, then all House seats would be vacant. So if a Federal law either abolishes or postpones elections so they cannot be certified in time for the new Congress to convene, States would immediately challenge, and Blue states would probably hold the election on time anyway, anticipating a ruling in their favor. We may end up with a new Congress controlled by Democrats, only because Red states never held elections.
It would get a fast track to the Supreme Court, and then who knows? The outcome might depend on what gratuities are promised by both sides…
Until the Supreme Court decides there is one, using some obscure common law ruling from 1600’s Britain as precedent.