The United Arab Emirates and Qatar are privately lobbying allies to help them persuade President Donald Trump to reach for an off-ramp that would keep US military o…
How would that happen exactly? Look at Ukraine, Russia’s been bombing it for four years now, and Iran is three times the size. There’s no realistic scenario where Iran can be defeated in a quick war here.
The goal isn’t to defeat Iran in a quick war, but to neutralize the nation’s long range artillery and turn it into a free fire zone for American and Israel armies.
Ukraine isn’t Iran. It has a firm rear guard of support from the NATO block, supply lines that can re-arm and re-staff depleted arsenals and positions along the eastern front, and allied agencies ready to pick at Russia’s flanks - by seizing cargo shipping, assassinating ranking political leadership, and blowing up critical domestic infrastructure.
What the Iranians lack, at the end of the day, is friends. Nobody in the Russian, Pakistani, or Chinese government is going to send saboteurs into Israel on their behalf. Nobody is going to help them keep the Straight of Hormuz shuttered. Nobody is going to blow up Saudi desalination plants or bomb peripheral American military bases.
Once Iran military can no longer produce and deploy new ballistic missiles, the country just becomes target practice for its enemies. We (probably) won’t see a Rumsfeld-style blitz into Tehran, like they managed in Baghdad. But we will see Iranian airspace closed, critical infrastructure destroyed, and population centers targeted to effectively break up the political face of Iran into its component parts.
What becomes of a nation without a central bureaucracy, an intercity municipal system, or a functional electrical grid? This was a country already in a water crisis months ago. It is a nation functionally under siege by the most sadistic and savage militaries in history. People are going to die by the millions before this is over, simply due to disease, drought, and famine. It’s going to be a country the size of Germany experiencing what Israel has done to Gaza.
Again, not clear how the US plans to neutralize long range missile capability of Iran.
Iran has firm support from Russia and China with supply lines running through friendly territory. Russia alone outproduces all of NATO militarily right now by a factor of three. Iran itself has a large industrial base, and can outproduce the US in things like missile production. It’s obvious that the logistics for the US are far worse than they are for Iran here. I also don’t really see Iran lacking in friends at all. It’s pretty clear they’re getting a lot of economic and military support from both Russia and China.
Also, this might be a surprise for you, but Iran can choose which ships they allow to sail through the strait of Hormuz the same way Yemen allowed Chinese and Russian ships to sail through Suez.
The Iranian military will be able to produce missiles long after the US military loses its capacity to do so because China isn’t blocking rare earths supplies from Iran like they are form the US. The Americans have no meaningful capacity to produce critical inputs themselves.
NATO spent a huge chunk of their existing stock piles in Ukraine over past four years, and their production capacity is laughably low. Once the US runs through its missile supplies in the next few weeks, it’s not clear what options they have at that point.
Meanwhile, if you think that the US is going to break up political face of Iran by bombing then you’re absolutely delusional. There’s been no single conflict in history where this actually happened, and Iran will certainly not going to be the first here.
You quite literally have no clue regarding the subject you’re opining on here.
How would that happen exactly? Look at Ukraine, Russia’s been bombing it for four years now, and Iran is three times the size. There’s no realistic scenario where Iran can be defeated in a quick war here.
The goal isn’t to defeat Iran in a quick war, but to neutralize the nation’s long range artillery and turn it into a free fire zone for American and Israel armies.
Ukraine isn’t Iran. It has a firm rear guard of support from the NATO block, supply lines that can re-arm and re-staff depleted arsenals and positions along the eastern front, and allied agencies ready to pick at Russia’s flanks - by seizing cargo shipping, assassinating ranking political leadership, and blowing up critical domestic infrastructure.
What the Iranians lack, at the end of the day, is friends. Nobody in the Russian, Pakistani, or Chinese government is going to send saboteurs into Israel on their behalf. Nobody is going to help them keep the Straight of Hormuz shuttered. Nobody is going to blow up Saudi desalination plants or bomb peripheral American military bases.
Once Iran military can no longer produce and deploy new ballistic missiles, the country just becomes target practice for its enemies. We (probably) won’t see a Rumsfeld-style blitz into Tehran, like they managed in Baghdad. But we will see Iranian airspace closed, critical infrastructure destroyed, and population centers targeted to effectively break up the political face of Iran into its component parts.
What becomes of a nation without a central bureaucracy, an intercity municipal system, or a functional electrical grid? This was a country already in a water crisis months ago. It is a nation functionally under siege by the most sadistic and savage militaries in history. People are going to die by the millions before this is over, simply due to disease, drought, and famine. It’s going to be a country the size of Germany experiencing what Israel has done to Gaza.
Quite literally bombed into the Stone Age.
Again, not clear how the US plans to neutralize long range missile capability of Iran.
Iran has firm support from Russia and China with supply lines running through friendly territory. Russia alone outproduces all of NATO militarily right now by a factor of three. Iran itself has a large industrial base, and can outproduce the US in things like missile production. It’s obvious that the logistics for the US are far worse than they are for Iran here. I also don’t really see Iran lacking in friends at all. It’s pretty clear they’re getting a lot of economic and military support from both Russia and China.
Also, this might be a surprise for you, but Iran can choose which ships they allow to sail through the strait of Hormuz the same way Yemen allowed Chinese and Russian ships to sail through Suez.
The Iranian military will be able to produce missiles long after the US military loses its capacity to do so because China isn’t blocking rare earths supplies from Iran like they are form the US. The Americans have no meaningful capacity to produce critical inputs themselves.
NATO spent a huge chunk of their existing stock piles in Ukraine over past four years, and their production capacity is laughably low. Once the US runs through its missile supplies in the next few weeks, it’s not clear what options they have at that point.
Meanwhile, if you think that the US is going to break up political face of Iran by bombing then you’re absolutely delusional. There’s been no single conflict in history where this actually happened, and Iran will certainly not going to be the first here.
You quite literally have no clue regarding the subject you’re opining on here.
It is depressing that you may be right. I hope it doesn’t come to it though.