☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆

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Cake day: January 18th, 2020

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  • Again, not clear how the US plans to neutralize long range missile capability of Iran.

    Iran has firm support from Russia and China with supply lines running through friendly territory. Russia alone outproduces all of NATO militarily right now by a factor of three. Iran itself has a large industrial base, and can outproduce the US in things like missile production. It’s obvious that the logistics for the US are far worse than they are for Iran here. I also don’t really see Iran lacking in friends at all. It’s pretty clear they’re getting a lot of economic and military support from both Russia and China.

    Also, this might be a surprise for you, but Iran can choose which ships they allow to sail through the strait of Hormuz the same way Yemen allowed Chinese and Russian ships to sail through Suez.

    The Iranian military will be able to produce missiles long after the US military loses its capacity to do so because China isn’t blocking rare earths supplies from Iran like they are form the US. The Americans have no meaningful capacity to produce critical inputs themselves.

    NATO spent a huge chunk of their existing stock piles in Ukraine over past four years, and their production capacity is laughably low. Once the US runs through its missile supplies in the next few weeks, it’s not clear what options they have at that point.

    Meanwhile, if you think that the US is going to break up political face of Iran by bombing then you’re absolutely delusional. There’s been no single conflict in history where this actually happened, and Iran will certainly not going to be the first here.

    You quite literally have no clue regarding the subject you’re opining on here.

























  • Even if Iran doesn’t take out a carrier, the US is now faced with no good options. It’s pretty clear they miscalculated, and Iran isn’t going to collapse. So, now they find themselves faced with an Ukraine style attrition war, except the logistics are far worse than they are for Russia which actually has a border with Ukraine. The US has to ship weapons and troops all the way across the ocean here. So, what does the US do now, do they commit to the war which is unwinnable, or do they run home with their tail between their legs?

    Either scenario is a disaster. If the US commits to the war then there’s almost certainly going to be an economic crash as happened when the US invaded Vietnam. If the US is seen to be defeated, then everyone can see that the empire can be defeated. The whole narrative of the best military in the world that cannot be challenged falls apart at that point.

    I’d argue attacking Iran was a far worse blunder than starting a proxy war in Ukraine, but it’s also compounded by it. The US has depleted a lot of its stocks of critical weapons like missile interceptors over the past four years, and the economic war on Russia forced a creation of a whole alternate economic system that’s outside western control. Both these factors have significantly weakened the American hand in the current conflict.