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  • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
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    7 hours ago

    Be careful putting all your hope on this campaign

    No no. She’s an outside long shot on a good day. I’ve seen the polls. But the Iran War puts some of her most popular issues at the forefront of the race.

    If you look at the cross tabs, Basically, Biss voters split between Kat and Fine as second choice, and all Fine voters break to Biss, and all Kat voters also break to Biss.

    With some enormous undecides floating in the wind. It’s absolutely Biss’s race to lose. But as Fine gets more money and support to challenge Kat and Biss, she’s defining herself more strictly as a pro-Hasbara candidate. And she’s doing it in a race where Israel is a highly polarizing issue.

    If this were typical times and typical campaigns, i’d say Kats done and Biss is going to win this. However, key issue I identified early: this is a poll of “likely voters”.

    Like with Mamdani, a big turnout spike would favor the more progressive primary challengers simply because the high profile issues favor Kat’s campaign.

    But also, it’s Chicago Politics and that shit’s cutthroat. Rahm Emanuel could jump out from behind a bush and just stab a bunch of candidates, idfk.

    • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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      6 hours ago

      Yeah I’d need to look closely at the districts demographics and citing characteristics. Seeing Kat on stage for the debate, I think she came across as a little green. Which doesn’t bother me, but there was a defensiveness in their tone that neither of the other top candidates had.

      I might dig into the district a bit further later to look at the districts demographics. Ill ping you if I get around to that.