The major difference is that in “blink” and “chicken” you expect to keep doing your thing (eg driving straight ahead) while only your opponent makes concessions.

The Cuban missile crisis involved significant concessions on both sides.

The Cuban middle crisis was resolved through negotiation and concessions, not by a game of nuclear chicken.

I don’t know if any of your predictions are true. They might be, but I don’t have nearly enough evidence to be confident in any of them.

If they are, I don’t see how the complete collapse of Russia is even remotely feasible. Those predictions add up to saying that none of the necessary pre-conditions have been or will be met. Together, they say that we have no way to coerce Russia into the desired state and we have no way to re-align their interest to get them to do so voluntarily.

China definitely won’t swoop in to defend Ukraine against Russia. I think we can agree on that. It’s pretty clear the US won’t either. I think we can agree on that too.

That’s why I’m wondering if you think the EU can get big enough to do so on it’s own, and do so quickly.

I can see why this would be a good outcome for Europe.

It essentially turns Russia into a puppet state. If we were to eliminate China and the US, that would make Russia Europe’s puppet state. While it has some obvious advantages to Europe, it’s clearly not in the interest of either Putin or Russia (the most pessimistic estimates put his approval rating at over 60% among Russians).

Since it’s obviously not to their advantage they won’t agree to it. That means someone would have to force them to accept that new status quo. The US just dropped all support and China has made it pretty clear that they’re not going to participate in any operation like that either.

So that leaves the EU. I’ll circle back to my earlier question. Do you think the EU is ready to adopt and ratify a constitution if it came up again? Absent that, do you think the EU can put together a military coalition that’s big enough and permanent enough to induce an immediate surrender by Russia? If not, do you think that the EU is willing and able to wage a protracted direct war against Russia?

What would be the best way for that to happen? More specifically, how can we pull this off safely?

We have very little historical precedent to go on. The USSR collapsed in 1991. There was some nervousness around what was going to happen with all their nukes. Ultimately, we ended up with Russia, led by Putin.

How would we stop Putin from triggering nuclear retaliation?
If we stop that, how do we make sure some other oligarch doesn’t immediately take his place?
If Russia were to completely collapse, what would happen to Russia? Would we be willing to let China take over? If not would we be willing to maintain an indefinite occupation of Russia?

There may be good answers to all of these questions. It seems the more practical solution is to contain Russia. Do you think the EU would be ready to adopt a constitution if it came up again?

The Democratic party, as it stands, is dead and the Greens are stillborn.

There’s nothing but hopes and prayers to support the idea that the Greens will ever get anywhere in the US. They have neither a policy platform nor any individuals who inspire broad support.

It is absolutely possible to take over parties from within though. We’ve seen it happen twice with the Republicans. They tried, and failed, to keep the Tea Party from taking over. Then they tried, and failed, to keep Trump from taking over.

History suggests we have a better chance getting AOC to take over and clean house with the Democrats than we do waiting for the Greens to make any headway.

I think that’s the point of this tour. He isn’t running for president. He’s trying to build a support base for a real alternative.

That’s presumably AOC but it’s still too early.

Republicans are faux angry. They clearly don’t really care about the deed at all. If anything they’re gleeful because they get to run around and call Biden a nepotistic liar.

Some Democrats are angry because Biden just handed the Republican a stinky turd that they’re going to throw in our face every time someone brings up any of their lies or nepotism.

Many Democrats don’t seem to care either, as long as Trump is worse.