• 4 Posts
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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • Provisional ballots are created when a voter shows up at the poll, but there’s some kind of problem with their registration that prevents them from voting. On election day the provisional ballots are tossed in a metaphorical pile labelled “in case of close race, open me.”

    In most elections, the margin of victory is high enough that no one needs to open the provisional ballots or check their eligibility.

    But in this race, it is close enough, so they now need to check whether each individual provisional vote is really eligible to vote or not. This is called “chase and cure,” and it usually involves tracking down and talking to the voters and others (the chase) and getting whatever documentation is missing to establish the eligibility (the cure).

    The Republican party doesn’t want these ballots to be cured or counted, because they expect the votes inside to skew heavily Democratic. So they will oppose. Partly because they caused a bunch of the provisional ballots by kicking people off the rolls wrongly.

    However, I think this is a pretty good position for Colom, if he has an 1,800 lead or so, and he expects any added votes to skew to him.




  • Let’s say that the rate of some cancer in the population is 1 in 400,000, and there’s a cheap and non-invasive screening test for this cancer that is pretty accurate. The screening test has a false positive rate of just 0.1%.

    If you screen 10,000,000 regular people with the test, it might find around 25 who really have the cancer. But it will also flag 10,000 healthy people for additional testing that is more invasive, carries its own unwarranted medical risks, and imposes unnecessary costs. No medical board is going to recommend applying this screening test to the general population.

    Anyhow, the original post was about voting.


  • Under the Administrative Procedure Act, you, a citizen, can’t challenge an illegal agency action until it’s a final agency action.

    This came up in the recent supreme court case about the post office ballot crap. It went up first based just on the Trump executive order, and the Supremes said it’s too soon. A Trump order is not a final agency action. So then they had to wait for the post office to publish the “final rules”, and then it went back up again, and then Supremes said, “okay, this time it is final, and also plainly illegal. lol.”

    So the game they’re playing now in this arch case, is they’re going to claim that there is no final agency action right up until the final plans are published, about half an hour before the construction crews move in, and right around 5:00 pm on a holiday weekend.

    The arch case judge is really not buying into that plan.





  • The procedural issues on this third bill are crazy.

    In the federal system, all felonies must be charged by indictment. The prosecutor can do a felony complaint, but that only allows them to arrest someone and potentially hold in jail for up to 30 days while they go get an indictment. Bills of information can only be used if the defendant agrees to it, and that is usually part of a plea deal together with a guilty plea.

    So these new chucklefucks filed an unwaivered information on October 5, 2026, for a crime that allegedly occurred on October 5, 2016. Ten years to the day, on a 10 year statute of limitations.

    They can’t even get an indictment in time.







  • The fine is $998 per day for “willfully” failing to depart after a final order of removal. $3,000 for failing to depart after voluntarily agreeing to do so, per incident. $250 for entering the United States not at a port of entry (increased to $5,130 after 4 July, 2025).

    The per-day fines accrue to a limit of $1.8 million per individual.

    The $998 per day fine was part of the 1996 immigration reform package. Previous administrations didn’t bother with it too much, because how the heck are going to collect the money from people you’ve already deported to foreign country? And how will people pay you hundreds of thousands if they’re already poor and broke?

    This administration doesn’t care about the practical limits of collection, and I suspect they don’t care too much about proving the “willfully” part of it either.