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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • capable of taking on the full brunt of U.S. capabilities

    US strategic options made public are like 300 but instead of guarding a choke point, they rush into higher defense ratios.

    But we’ve also been using our own drones for more than 20 years now, longer than most other countries.

    US is not among the 4 drone superpowers. Iran is one of these. US tech is old, expensive, and not high volume production.

    you can’t ignore the fact that the U.S. is holding back so far.

    The option they have threatened is mutual assured destruction of global economy. US has avoided Iran oil, and unsanctioned them during this war. It’s hard to see why they would escalate more, even if Israel gets to veto.


  • If the douchebags running the show decide they want to commit to a full-scale invasion with all available assets,

    If you’ve played RTS/starcraft, zerging one unit at a time after you have started the campaign, is not effective. Zerging as a verb also refers to suiciding cheap units to overcome a big objective, and US is not playing the Zerg side. Putting entirety of US military forces in near proximity of Iran is going to continue the reported hospital filling Iran strikes on those gatherings from this weekend.

    The plan you speak of is completely different than surprise assassination of ayatollah followed by quick air campaign hoping for surrender. It is something that has to be in place before the air campaign, and not one unit at a time that has 2 week lag time before it is in position.


  • How can Europe, occupied Korea, or Japan credibly think that the US will defend them at that point?

    It’s disturbing if they currently think US will defend them, when all defenses are moved to Israel today, and Trump shifts from “not our problem, we should leave” and “permanent global economy destruction”, and delaying “permanent global destruction” while Israel pursues it anyway. Furthermore, pursuing the Israel genocide expansion plan makes US angry at low enthusiasm level of its colonies to join, and promises “bad future” for its allies.

    If they’re forced to abandon all their vassals in the Gulf, then their image as a world power collapses overnight.

    That is most likely outcome. Of the $200B funding request bill, as much as $50B is expected as earmark to allies reparations other than Israel. Unclear that congress will go along with any funds for them.






  • Iran has total control over SoH, and total control over the economic survival of GCC allies of US, and of their access to drinking water, which would be certain to get both population and military of those countries to Khadaffi their monarchies, and regime change their way to an alliance with Iran.

    While his plan to give 5 days for Iran to surrender without compromise is DOA, it was done to avoid “unleashing hell” on global economy. Before the threat to Iran energy infrastructure saturday, there was the perfect Friday plan: Declare victory and leave, and let the world figure out how to open SoH. Very easy for the world to do.



  • Most likely outcome of Iran war, whether or not victory declared, is that GCC will move towards Iran/China orbit and oil trade in BRICS currencies, with defense from Israel as common defensive alliance. https://lemmy.ca/post/62097698

    Either the $200B giveaway to military and “allies” bankrupts the US, or losing middle east hegemony does, along with the massive GCC financialization support of US economy. All US allies except Canada rely on gulf more than the US, and US’s Israel only protection focus, means “US friendship” is a liability if not worthless.

    Like b43’s GFC, Trump’s covid response disaster (including intentional policy to make covid worse in blue cities), Republicans destroy economy every time. There is a limited capacity, or number of times, to bail out the system and maintain credibility.

    I would pick under 10 years, even though the US is very good at extending collapse. The end will be visible soon, even though the GFC created a “premature batch” of doomers. There’s simply no more budget capacity, or pretense of empire strength, that can be credible. Thank Epstein.


  • Israel has always controlled the US by playing both parties. Since Oct 7th, all money is for GOP, and any left over is for DNC to lose on purpose, while still fully praising genocide-lite. This blatant Israel-only-desperate war short circuting Mossad agent US negotiations with Iran, with top national security official resigning over Israel first war, and Marco Rubio admitting Israel forced the US to obey orders, puts the US in a vulnerable position of being caught pants down with Netanyahu’s cock in their throat.

    US establishment’s eagerness to be under absolute Israel control is unshakable, and so massive opportunities to control narrative, and punish detractors, is certain. However, absolute impotence towards Iran’s will, and reality, is a bigger force facing US politics.


  • SoH is not closed. GCC production/export capacity is not completely zero yet. Iran controls it though. If US doesn’t agree to peace, then any food/water imports to GCC and oil exports getting a 10% Iran tax/toll is a better deal for everyone than not letting shipping go through. Gulf oil has hit $165/bbl today. A month ago, GCC was happy getting $65/bbl. They are happy at any number “net” in between, as are their Asian customers. Paying in Yuan is not a “showstopper” problem for any of them.

    US language is rapidly de escalating, if you look for it.