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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • if tsmc only makes datacenter chips from now on, then “we” are shut out from the huge privacy (and fine tuning specialization) gains given by small efficient cheap to run models (or play games on new hardware). US datacenters will serve US empire/political establishment both with government as main LLM customer, but also for data collection/palantir ontology/social credit scores on every American.

    I suspect that better datacenter chips won’t actually reduce their cost due to supply limitations, but even for small efficient models, personal hardware has a long payback period compared to a per token “rental” cloud charge. It is unlikely that all of the datacenter chip buyers will have non-government customers to use them all, and so either bailout or bankruptcy followed by megatech buying the datacenters for cheap followed by a bailout in government revenue for big tech global/citizen control applications.

    Eventually, even the government has too much AI resources, at planned expansion pace, and then consumer/business computing/gpu market comes back. Could be as soon as 2026 that a collective understanding of absurdity occurs.


  • This is extremely serious for economic bubble.

    Orders for datacenter AI chips exceed supply, and more high end/other memory per TSMC wafer is further nightmare. This is likely to mean higher prices per token for datacenter buyers, and higher prices for users/model renters, and much slower demand growth and AI progress. It also means long delays for datacenters, and better black market (China, higher than MSRP diversions from contracted deliveries).

    I’m not sure if affects phone/lpddr soldered memory, but tsmc is going to charge more for phone chips too. This can cause whole consumer/business computing market to collapse. Return of older generation designs on underused process nodes will give little reason to upgrade, and still overcharge. This can be an opening for China exports of competing products that were not possible at low/reasonable ram/tsmc prices/availability, where even if China has difficulty achieving best yields, it’s still profitable to invest/expand aggressively, that discourages US/western colonies from investing.

    This race to give the US Skynet, for stronger political control/social credit/surveillance of Americans, can make a bubble in everything else, and accelerate financial collapse, all the while making the goal impossible to achieve and forcing China to become stronger/more resilient, with greater share of global computing supply.


  • Putin made significant reforms from CIA stooge, and therefore loved “democratic leader” Yeltsin’s corruption was reformed. Western propaganda still portrays the oligarchy Yeltsin helped create (to enrichment of western financing) as in control of Russia. Reality to Russians, is that CIA puppetted nazi Ukraine instigated this war for diminishment of Russia goals, and defense of Russia is needed, and Putin has done a competent job in growing a war economy with good pay for everyone who wants a job in Russia. Western propaganda carries no weight because west hates an independent/cohesive Russia.






  • how Venezuela defeating the Burger Reich would create dependence on Russia

    Viet Cong “won” with 10:1 casualty ratio, but more specifically, got a stalemate that lasted longer than US patience. Failure to capture or hold Venezuela by the US is a Venezuela victory, but it will come at costs. Dependence on Russia is needed to prolong a stalemate, where stalemate = eventual loss of patience by US.

    if Russia sank a US carrier group that would be the start of WW3

    No. Ends war on Venezuela, and ends illusions of US power projection. Whether nuclear weapons are used or not, there’s a right to sink boats making baseless attacks. There’s no reason to start a war on Russia after that, and no one would want to.






  • Tesla stock price has always been valued on “Next Big Thing”. Its robotaxi/fsd is falling flat so far. But robotics is new NBT. With 85% of robots sold in China, and massive manufacturing market share that is still growing, future robot sales will still take place there, and Chinese companies are already well ahead in humanoid and other robotics.

    Also their gimmick, robot soccer and robot olympics events, even if not incredibly impressive, is a mass student training program in robotics future that just doesn’t exist in the west. China’s future robot dominance is completely assured because they care about making it happen. Tesla has 0 chance of success, and for a market, requires giving Tesla US monopoly on overpriced robots.


  • This is Sweden/Nobel committee giving Trump more than he wants. Not only do they give the prize to a Venezuelan traitor, not only legitimizing CIA destabilization, election rigging/baseless complaining about resuts, and future war, the only media focus is going to be on what traitorous/TDS scum Sweden/Nobel committee are vs how much dopamine hit should you enjoy that Trump is throwing a tantrum. Justifying war on Venezuela is just a massive demonic gift to Trump, and not calling out Sweden/Nobel committee for fascit evil is just perfect for fascism.


  • Dangerous beliefs part of the propaganda that West/Ukraine has been winning all along. Wages are very high in Russia, due to high military pay bonuses, and is massively increasing military production. Russia has enough troops and equipment to be gaining territory every week. Russia moved ahead of Germany and Japan to be 4th largest economy. All of this comes from western reporting.

    Just because there is always propaganda about how unconditional surrender of enemy is just mere weeks away, it is suicidal to believe any of it.