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Joined 2 年前
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Cake day: 2024年10月23日

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  • This is supposedly targetting China

    Approximately 450 large Chinese power transformers (rated above 10,000 kVA) have been imported into the U.S. grid since 2006. Critically, over 360 of these are Large Power Transformers (LPTs) exceeding 100,000 kVA

    There are significant orders from utilities to China for new Transformers. The US has a 2.5 year queue overall for transformer delivery, which would lengthen considerably, and the existing Chinese transformers would also need to be replaced.

    The order is also designed to make utility solar more expensive, and delayed, for their inverter costs.





  • Iran is already at maximum sanctions, and all of its trading partners (especially border states) use local financing/cash completely seperate from all US financial systems or sanctions reach. All national scale/SWIFT access banks already avoid Iran trade involvement.

    Targetting ships that “will only in future” help Iran oil flows, can only decrease future oil flows, but only if they don’t need oil in short term and keep doing it, but also just serve Iran oil in the future, and get cut off from all other oil.



  • There’s $2.5T of insured value on the 5 year, I believe. That is $90b in premiums paid per year to insure against something that won’t happen in 5 years. It’s a bit of a puzzle why they have such high prices/volume for insurance with 0 payout probability, but some ideas.

    1. bank magic regulatory compliance, maybe combining leverage with CDS to count as unlevered “safe capital”
    2. The insurance kicks in for any “US credit event”. All CDS contracts on Russian bonds kicked in because Europe wouldn’t take payments. So something small can have a big payoff if US rates are under high pressure 5 years later.

    More CDS fun facts: 30 year bond CDS which seem to have a 50/50 chance of 2056 collapse/reorganization of the US cost under 0.5% per year, and have very low comparative total size of $300B. Japan’s CDS for same duration are actually cheaper than US despite no constitutional/other rules preventing default as an option, and they are tighter in a corner with few good options.

    In addition to your list, Dodd Frank includes a section where “All derivative payouts are hereby cancelled” presidential power. So the answer to the puzzle is that the same BS collateral rules/tricks that caused AIG to go bankrupt exist for US CDS, but not as much for JGB CDS. For one, you can sell CDS on US treasuries, while putting up US treasuries (in small fraction) as collateral against a US default which could make the collateral value as low as 0. Low interest in 30 year CDS can only be because of this absurdity that every other modern AIG would be unable to pay.




  • best we can do is return ACA subsidies, and undo GOP harm.

    As minority leader, he’s the favorite to be the house leader should Dems gain majority in November. House leader has a lot of control in preventing proposals from coming to the house.

    I don’t support medicare for all

    Impeaching Trump is only path to getting any legislation not vetoed, and then impeaching any replacements likely needed too. Returning ACA subsidies may be something that is a horse trade for other deficit wreckage, but his answer was not that “medicare for all is not a realistic law we can pass before 2028” It was what I quoted.












  • “Golden Fleet” battleships named after you-know-who. (Those battleships will cost an astonishing $9bn to $13bn each.)

    50/50 they will cost over $20B a piece (need Qatar air force 1 jet quality VIP room) and still won’t be able to approach within 1000km of Iran coast. Navies no longer project power against modern defense strategies. Only blockades of civilian ships that battleships are too slow for.

    The $200B “Iran defeat recovery bill” that was written a little more than a week after war started is still secret and being worked on. Likely to grow even if war unwinds quickly to cover Iran and allies (not just Israel) reparations to keep them colonized.