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Cake day: January 4th, 2024

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  • It’s actually waves of religious extremism. Ebbs and flows. It can be, and has been, fought before. The problem is that it never fully dies out.

    I’d like to think that reason can eventually win. If only because the religious extremists keep taking it to, well, extremes. This drives people away from the belief, because why the fuck would you ever believe in the shit the extremists preach?

    They tell you that you’re worthless, that you should bow and scrape while they ignore every single tenet of their own religion. Holiness becomes removed from actions and becomes and excuse for terrible behavior.

    But then the extremist are forced to back off, or their little sect of greed worship dies out when the grifter claiming to be a preacher dies or gets sent to prison, and the cycle is primed to begin again when a new sect of Christianity pops up to start recruiting in an area, often by first attacking non-Christian education options.











  • Oh, you want 20th century again? You didn’t like it in my original comment, but back to Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem, proven definitively in 1950.

    Arrow’s impossibility theorem is a key result in social choice theory showing that no ranked-choice procedure for group decision-making can satisfy the requirements of rational choice.[1] Specifically, American economist Kenneth Arrow showed no such rule can satisfy independence of irrelevant alternatives, the principle that a choice between two alternatives A and B should not depend on the quality of some third, unrelated option, C.[2][3][4]

    The result is often cited in discussions of voting rules,[5] where it shows no ranked voting rule can eliminate the spoiler effect.[6][7][8] This result was first shown by the Marquis de Condorcet, whose voting paradox showed the impossibility of logically-consistent majority rule; Arrow’s theorem generalizes Condorcet’s findings to include non-majoritarian rules like collective leadership or consensus decision-making.[1]

    Then a bit later, this important part;

    Rated voting rules, where voters assign a separate grade to each candidate, are not affected by Arrow’s theorem.[17][18][19] Arrow initially asserted the information provided by these systems was meaningless and therefore could not be used to prevent paradoxes, leading him to overlook them.[20] However, Arrow would later describe this as a mistake,[21][22] admitting rules based on cardinal utilities (such as score and approval voting) are not subject to his theorem.[23][24]

    The Spoiler Effect is when a voting system fails independence of irrelevant alternatives. This is what drives two party dominance, after all, if you’re punished for voting third party, third parties become actively harmful. This is why the major support for most third parties comes from their ideological opponents. Jill Stein being super cozy with Russia and Republican donors being the key recent example.


  • I’m falling for the mathematical truth.

    We’ve known that Ordinal voting was bad since the 1780s, The Mathematician, philosopher and Girondian, Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas Caritat, the Marquis de Condorcet, wrote the seminal work on it; Essay on the Application of Analysis to the Probability of Majority Decisions (Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix). Found here in the original French

    We haven’t fixed anything, because the voting method itself is broken. In any First Past the Post election, you have the Spoiler Effect, where just a few votes for a third party can guarantee that the person furthest from that candidate on the political spectrum wins. Look at Ross Perot securing Clinton’s win in 1992 and Ralph Nader securing Bush’s win in 2000.

    None of that shit is fixed because we’re still using the broken system, a system that wasn’t actually ever really designed as such, it was just the default easiest way to do things and enables minority rule.


  • It’s a consequence of Ordinal voting methods, particularly First Past the Post.

    Arrow’s Impossibility Theorium spells it out. https://electowiki.org/wiki/Arrow’s_impossibility_theorem

    The tldr is that any ranked voting system will result in two parties.

    This is really because all ranked voting systems are built around the word “Or”.

    You support A or B. Which means that A and B have incentive to demonize each other, because every vote for A is one less potential vote for B.

    The solution is abandoning Ordinal voting for a Cardinal system.

    The simplest method is Approval.

    Approval voting is a single-winner electoral system where each voter may select (“approve”) any number of candidates. The winner is the candidate approved by the largest number of voters. It is distinct from plurality voting, in which a voter may choose only one option among several (where the option with the most selections is declared the winner). It is related to score voting in which voters give each option a score on a scale, and the option with the highest total of scores is selected.

    Another option is STAR.

    www.starvoting.org

    It’s been deliberately designed to make for better election results.