Russia wants the four oblasts, which they have been accelerating their advance in in the last few months. Cheap and deadly FPV drones force slow movement in general, but in the last few months strings of Kiev-held strongholds are falling left and right. Ukraine can’t field the war much longer either, and the war is becoming increasingly unpopular. What’s likely is that the four oblasts go to Russia, Kiev is forced into NATO neutrality, and their millitary is severely crippled. That’s absolutely a Russian victory.

Which of these do you think Russia will have to compromise on, and why would you consider the compromise to be a loss?

China and Russia are not imperialist, they are closer to global south countries in their position with respect to imperialism as a global phenomenon. In order to fight the tendency for the rate of profit to fall, capital either seeks new markets, ie new inventions to flood with capital or geographically new markets, or it seeks to establish monopoly. The former allows for greater profits in absolute terms, the latter temporarily raises the rate of profit. The natural consequence is imperialism, where this is combined by having financial capital dominate the global south, super-exploiting labor for super-profits, and via unequal exchange, where technology and tech development is kept in the global north and thus monopoly prices are charged.

This is also why south-south trade is the path to escape underdevelopment, and is why China in particular has been a progressive force for the global south, as they don’t withold tech knowledge but instead share it through cooperation and trade. China also doesn’t charge the same monopoly prices for tech, which is why global south countries are seeing huge electrification, expansions in EVs, etc.

The west used to have a monopoly on cutting edge tech, they witheld the technology used for creating firearms from African countries for hundreds of years while selectively trading firearms in limited quantities for huge amounts of slaves, as an example. The west forces the global south to rely on them, and forces them into remaining at lower levels of industrial development and refinement. It’s also why countries like the Sahel States are working towards cutting unrefined gold exports and upping refined gold exports, ie moving from unfinished raw materials into more finished goods or ancillary materials, and why porkie is terrified of them.

It isn’t that goods further along in the commodity production process have more valuable labor time at the higher end, it’s that the upper end of the production chain is easier to keep a tech and skill monopoly on. This is what liberals mean by “higher value add” industries, made more naked through Marxist analysis.

Before you start making bets, what do you count as a Russian victory? It’s almost certainly going to end favorably to Russia, so I’m not sure why you’d take this bet.

The “3 day war” idea was not an official millitary or government statement, Lukashenko and an RT editor both said it and the west has been using it as a way to obscure the fact that Russia has been steadily achieving its actually stated goals. I know you’ve read Lenin, have you read Imperialism, the Current Highest Stage of Capitalism? The Russian Federation is governed by nationalists, not finance capital, and Russia doesn’t have a stake in the global financial monopoly. It’s the west that has that. Russia doesn’t really meet the Marxist understanding of imperialism, nor is it acting how we would expect imperialist powers to act.

There’s no evidence that the collapse in Ukrainian defenses will slow down, rather it seems like it will accelerate as strongholds fall and the war becomes increasingly unpopular. Russia isn’t trying to take all of Ukraine, just the four oblasts, the Economist is trying to frame it as total and complete conquest of Ukraine. When compared to Russia’s actual objectives, Russia is advancing steadily.

Further, Russia does not “throw meat” at the war. Russians are largely supportive of Putin right now because he’s doing a balancing act between appeasing the Russian capitalist class and the rising socialist movements in the public. Russia’s economy is holding strong, the sheer fact that sanctions are still coming out means they haven’t been effective thus far. I belong to the Marxist school of economics, which recognizes actual production over the largely financial western economies.

Your final accusation that I’m a bot for not agreeing with you is just the cherry on top. You give clear examples of liberals manipulating data like the economist graph and using percentages of total Ukrainian territory and not the Donbass region, because when we measure Russia by its ability to achieve its actual goals its clear that its rapidly advancing towards them. You’re quite literally uncritically spouting liberal, western propaganda that falls apart at the slightest prodding.

It’s definitely going to last longer than any of us want or hope for. The problem is that morality doesn’t make any difference on the unfolding of historical progression and as such true justice is unfortunately rare.

Yep, it’s deeply tragic.

Proper party building, democratic centralism, and a strong adherence to theory and a connection to the working classes.

Ableism too, amazing. Mask-off.

Incredible homophobia from you. Counteract my points with your own, not mask-off homophobia. Scratch a liberal and a fascist bleeds.

More evidence of the DotP in place, as this isn’t an isolated incident.

Russia has been gradually taking more and more land and strategic footholds. This war is incredibly brutal, and the massive rise in FPV drones that are cheap and deadly forces slow movements, almost like a return to World War I style trench warfare. The Russian economy is still holding on strong, Europe is importing tons of gas indirectly from Russia through alternate channels, and Russia has spent the last decade trying to rely less on unreliable western trade partners. Further, there’s no real evidence of Russia putting Trump in the White House, nor would Ukraine suddenly be winning had Harris been in office.

The failure of MAS to consolidate, and instead to destroy itself over splitting, will end up disastrous for the Bolivian people. Every socialist party must view them as an example of how not to handle succession.

Because Russia is winning and has no reason to stop. Whether or not anyone is “okay” with Russia winning makes no difference on what the logical conclusion is, which is eventual Russian victory, as Russia is winning and Ukraine is losing even with NATO support. Russia stopping while they are ahead and the war is coming to a close is the least logical conclusion.

No? Why would Russia stop when it’s winning?

Russia is currently beating Ukraine + NATO support, I’m not sure what you’re trying to say here.

This seems more based on capitalist-realism than on practical analysis. The US Empire is on its way out, and with it will go Israel.

Israel isn’t going to last forever, the illusion of its indestructability has been destroyed and the resistance’s bravery and courage in resisting the entity are known around the world. Palestinians will not cease until Palestine is free, and Israel is going to crumble as more settlers flee and investments dry up.

If you mean the Statesian, pro-capitalist kind, it’s mostly a silly ideology pushed by small business owners and other highly individualist classes that are nonetheless pushed towards the working classes by competing against ever-growing monopolies.

The left wing version, I disagree with as you can’t dismantle the state without removing the basis of the state, class, and you can’t remove class without collectivizing production and distribution. Small, local cells loosely organized in a decentralist fashion would still result in class struggle and thus a form of state to hold one class over the others. That said, the leftists are valuable allies at times despite disagreements.

I happened to connect with an amazing person, and I love being married to them. I would have been fine had I been single, or dated casually for the rest of my life, but nevertheless the person I met has changed both me and my life completely.