Today is Tuesday, 10/20 and the general US Elections are in TWO WEEKS.
As it stands right now, the current Senate composition is:
47 - Democrats
51 - Republicans
2 - Independents
Looking at the numbers, we COULD see a huge shift in the Senate this year, best case scenario would be:
52 - Democrats
45 - Republicans
3 - Independents
1ST DEMOCRATIC FLIP - NC
2ND DEMOCRATIC FLIP - SC
3RD DEMOCRATIC FLIP - TX
4TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - OH
5TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - KS
6TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - IA
7TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - ME
El-Sayed wins MI, hold, not a flip!
Alaska - 74% Reporting - D+0.29 (637 votes!)
(Dan Sullivan^1 47.88%
Dan Sullivan^2 1.68%)
Alaska margin has not changed now in several days, and they can’t activate the ranked choice voting until ALL the initial ballots are counted. Expect this all to change dramatically when the lower tier candidates are elimimated and 2nd, 3rd, 4th place votes are counted.
Mississippi - 97% Reporting - D+0.27 (2,574 votes!)
The lead for the Democrat has been slowly increasing since election day. Mississippi has no function for recounting. Election results must be reported to the state by Friday, 11/13.
Chart Follows:
| State | Current | Occupant | Status | D Cand | R Cand | Polling 10/18 | Outcome | Polling Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Democratic | Hickenlooper | Safe D | John Hickelooper | Mark Baisley | Called D | ||
| Delaware | Democratic | Coons | Safe D | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | Called D | ||
| Georgia | Democratic | Ossoff | Safe D | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | Called D | ||
| Illnois | Democratic | Durbin | Safe D | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | Called D | ||
| Massachusetts | Democratic | Markey | Safe D | Ed Markey | John Deaton | Called D | ||
| New Hampshire | Democratic | Shaheen | Safe D | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | Called D | ||
| New Jersey | Democratic | Booker | Safe D | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | Called D | ||
| New Mexico | Democratic | Luja | Safe D | Ben Ray Luján | Larry Marker | Called D | ||
| Oregon | Democratic | Merkley | Safe D | Jeff Merkley | David Brock Smith | Called D | ||
| Rhode Island | Democratic | Reed | Safe D | Jack Reed | Raymond McKay | Called D | ||
| Virginia | Democratic | Warner | Safe D | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | Called D | ||
| Minnesota | Democratic | Smith | D | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | Called D | ||
| North Carolina | Republican | Tillis | D | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/1 |
| Alabama | Republican | Tuberville | Safe R | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | Called R | ||
| Arkansas | Republican | Cotton | Safe R | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | Called R | ||
| Florida | Republican | Moody | Safe R | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | Called R | ||
| Idaho | Republican | Risch | Safe R | Withdrawn | Jim Risch | Called R | ||
| Kentucky | Republican | McConnell | Safe R | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | Called R | ||
| Louisiana | Republican | Cassidy | Safe R | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | Called R | ||
| Mississippi | Republican | Hyde-Smith | Safe R | Cindy Hyde-Smith | Scott Colom | R+9 | ||
| Montana | Republican | Daines | Safe R | Alani Bankhead | Kurt Alme | Called R | ||
| Nebraska | Republican | Ricketts | Safe R | Dan Osborn (I) | Pete Ricketts | Called R | R Momentum since 10/1 | |
| Oklahoma | Republican | Armstrong | Safe R | N’Kiyla Thomas | Kevin Hern | Called R | ||
| South Dakota | Republican | Rounds | Safe R | Brian Bengs | Mike Rounds | Called R | ||
| Tennessee | Republican | Hagerty | Safe R | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | Called R | ||
| West Virginia | Republican | Capito | Safe R | Rachel Fetty Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | Called R | ||
| Wyoming | Republican | Lummis | Safe R | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | Called R | ||
| South Carolina | Republican | Graham | R | Annie Andrews | Darline Graham | D FLIP | R Momentum since 8/29 | |
| Alaska | Republican | Sullivan | Tossup | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | D+3 | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 8/4 |
| Iowa | Republican | Ernst | Tossup | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 9/10 |
| Kansas | Republican | Marshall | Tossup | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 10/1 |
| Maine | Republican | Collins | Tossup | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | COLLINS CONCEDES | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 7/6 |
| Michigan | Democratic | Peters | Tossup | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | Called D | Possible R Flip | D Momentum since 8/17 |
| Ohio | Republican | Husted | Tossup | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/2 |
| Texas | Republican | Cornyn | Tossup | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/1 |


They aren’t counting the safe undecided seats.