Polling guru Nate Silver has upgraded Democrats’ chances of winning control of the U.S. Senate in November’s midterm elections, with his forecast now giving the party a 75 percent probability of victory.
Silver’s FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast, published by Silver Bulletin, previously classified Democrats’ chances as “Lean D” as their prospects of retaking the chamber improved. The forecast has now moved into the “Likely D” category, marking a further shift in the model’s outlook.
Silver’s model uses polling data and other indicators to estimate the likelihood of different election outcomes. Its probabilities are estimates rather than guarantees, and the outlook can change as new polling and other information become available, but the latest upgrade suggests the model increasingly favors Democrats in the battle for the chamber.
Just some reminders on polling and prediction models:
Individual polls from reputable pollsters can be a barometer for a snapshot in time, but they may also be outliers.
An aggregation of many reputable polls during the same period of time is a more accurate snapshot in time.
Long-term trends can be very useful and give more extrapolative trajectories (e.g., the long-term downward decline of Biden’s aggregate national approval ratings and his steady decline in swing-states leading to a change in strategy and his stepping down).
Still, such polls may not accurately represent fringe groups (though many pollsters compensate in a variety of ways).
We shouldn’t just blindly follow the polls (blind-leading-the-blind mentality)—e.g., if the case is never made for something, then it never gets popular. Bernie Sanders heavily advocated for Universal Healthcare and we of course have seen an adjustment in polling instead of simply reacting to its initial unpopularity—but we also shouldn’t ignore trends.
Polls don’t dictate what people do in the moment, or say or do later; instead, they’re an imperfect reflection of where they are at in the moment.
Models and Projections like Silver’s with good odds doesn’t mean you still can’t lose, and it doesn’t prove his model is a failure. Just because there’s a 95% chance you don’t roll a critical failure doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen. That’s only proven if on hindsight of many cycles of elections, where his accuracy holds up fairly well when including all races including congressional.
Every advocate should have the mindset of trying to change polls to their advantage; this by active campaigning (canvassing, phone-banking, fundraising, etc.), change of messaging, etc. In this respect, again, the trend is more important.
Context should always be considered when discussing polling. (e.g., in isolation, Biden’s debate could be considered, “just one bad night, and we can swing polls back,” without considering the long-term concern that was already present over his immutable vice — age/cognitive-decline.)
No matter what the polls say, winning, tying, or losing… Always and I mean always Register and VOTE. Not just this, but drag 3-5 other people to register and vote with you.