Could it be that Israel’s 30-year narrative about Iran – one that persuaded US President Donald Trump to wage a criminal and disastrous war of aggression – was always a fiction, an invention cooked up in Tel Aviv?
Far from Tehran posing an existential danger to Israel, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed for decades, might Israel’s real fear be that a stronger Iran would undermine its unique leverage over Washington, threatening its status as the region’s sole – and unmonitored – nuclear power?
Might large parts of the globe be facing economic meltdown simply so that Israel can remain the Middle East’s top dog – an unaccountable apartheid state committing genocide against the Palestinian people and ethnically cleansing southern Lebanon?
We got a definitive answer last week, care of the New York Times. It is an uncompromising yes to all of these questions.
The newspaper reported that Netanyahu not only mis-sold Trump on the idea of quick regime change in Iran following a short “shock and awe” bombing campaign. He also identified to the White House who was going to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme religious leader.
Extraordinarily, according to the Times, Netanyahu named the man for the job as former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The aim at the start of the air campaign was for Israel to kill Khamenei, then liberate Ahmadinejad from house arrest by striking the guards who were confining him.
Presumably, Ahmadinejad was then supposed to storm the citadel and seize the keys to the palace. But only Khamenei’s assassination went according to plan.
Ahmadinejad, who had reportedly been consulted on the scheme beforehand, is believed to have been injured in the Israeli strike near his home. He got cold feet, possibly suspecting he was being set up for assassination too, and went into hiding. His current whereabouts and medical condition are unknown.
There is truth to Israel’s claims: Iran has possessed the physical and human capacity to develop nuclear weapons for decades. This capability served as the primary deterrent against Israeli or U.S. attacks on Tehran, particularly after what happened to Iraq and Libya. However, the situation is a bit more complex though:
The Iranian leadership understands that if they were to accumulate nuclear stockpiles, Israel is genocidal enough to nuclear wipe those facilities and the entire Tehran itself upon a mere confirmation of such. Worse yet, much of the Western world would had accepted such an outcome, so de facto giving an incentive for Israel to do so (not that it needed one). Iranian intelligence also recognizes that even its top commanders are not criminal enough to use nuclear weapons first or even second, especially without extensive deliberation, and time in such an incredibly fast-scale conflict is something Tehran would not have. Therefore, Iran treats the nuclear option primarily as a negotiating card rather than an immediate or mid-term goal.
So, I believe Israel’s assessment is credible: Iran could potentially develop a nuclear weapon within weeks. However, the Israeli intelligence knows that Iran neither had nor has intention of pursuing this path since 10-20 years.
Meanwhile, Iran has focused in incredibly advanced its missile capabilities, which are now nearly unstoppable, and now also is probably getting assistance from China and Russia in purely defense technology. This provides Iran with sufficient deterrence for now; what remains necessary is securing counterintelligence operations to protect these missile systems.
For negotiations, control of the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as an effective strategic lever. This means Iran no longer needs the nuclear capability as the leverage and could potentially give it as a bone to Trump.
Things have shifted so much in the region that Iran now feels emboldened enough to demand that attacks on a third country, Lebanon, to cease; We once believed only two powers possessed such clout: the US and China, the only difference that the newcomer uses it for good (so far). The world has indeed changed!
It’s been a while since I’ve read it but Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare was an eye-opening read (it can be a bit dry but has great information)
A bit old reference, but so glad to see informed people here!
Ahmadinejad? Seriously??? What a horrific farce.
It almost sounds like an excerpt from a fanfic lol.
Doesn’t really matter what Netanyahu cooked up for Trump, he was well aware there was no plan and just wanted the US to enter a new long term conflict on Israel’e behalf.
i think iran will eventually make nukes , doesn’t make since to spend so much resources developing your missile and nuclear technology but not cross the finish line
The irony is that this current conflict has made it more, not less likely, that Iran actually develops their own nukes. Well done Trumpanyahu, you played yourselves.
