Here’s the problem as I see it. Trump, Hegseth, and Rubio are deeply overconfident. Trump’s former ambassador was telling BBC that Venezuela is much easier than Iraq. Trump fell into the same mistake as Bush did of thinking the president is unpopular and that the outside opposition is all set to swoop in and replace the government and give Trump everything he wants in oil. This is too tantalizing. The problem is that the new government is not stable, patriots and nationalists and pro-Maduro pro-army forces will resist and fight a foreign occupation. Trump thought he could skirt the problems of Iraq by doing only airstrikes and wrapping up the whole conflict in less than 60 days (so that Congress can be cut out of the whole thing).

Rebels can sabotage the oil lines, that means the need for troops to protect the oil. That will go longer than the 60 day limit; so either Trump will have to find another military or ask Congress for authorization. Trump will likely force Congress to go along; Republicans are too scared to cross Trump and Democrats are afraid of being labeled unpatriotic for not going along with it. The fact is that Dem leaders are being silent on this. The only good take I’ve seen is Graham Platner issuing a statement about how illegal this whole thing is, not defending Maduro or sounding unpatriotic.

Long story short, Congress will meekly go along with Trump’s war as a fait accompli. Nobody wants to be painted as anti-troops or pro-drugs or whatever Republicans will smear them as.